Transit Hunter

Results of the batch searches

Findings

Six years of TESS data searched for planets around M dwarfs: one strong candidate, one weak lead, and a reason for every other signal.

How the search was run

Each TESS year was searched on its own with the batch search, from sector 1 to sector 83 (2018–24). For each year it took up to 1,000 M dwarfs (Teff ≤ 3,900 K, TESS magnitude ≤ 13) with 2-minute light curves in at least two of that year’s sectors, ran the full pipeline with quick MCMC fits, and screened the survivors. The screening listed 62 signals for review, and each was then checked by hand: against catalogs of known eclipsing binaries, in the star’s raw light curve for rotation and short-period variation, in the target pixels, and above all in the star’s light curves from its other TESS years. A real planet transits in every year at the same period and depth; noise and instrumental events do not. That last check is now a script, scripts/check_other_years.py.

Where these numbers come from Unlike the rest of this site, the tables of outcomes below are written by hand from those checks. Every number about G 249-11, and its two figures, come from results/g249-11, with the command that reproduces each.

G 249-11 (TIC 417732194): a candidate super-Earth

One signal holds up: a 5.307-day transit on G 249-11, an M4.5 dwarf 29 parsecs away. The batch found it in sectors 59 and 60 (2022–23). Searched on their own, the light curves from 2019 (sector 19) and 2023–24 (sectors 73 and 86) find the same period.

G 249-11 photometry folded at 5.3074 days: the same 3,000 ppm dip in sector 19 (2019), sectors 59-60 (2022-23) and the QLP full-frame light curves of sectors 73 and 86 (2023-24), each with the same transit model, and the 13 individual 2-minute transits offset vertically
The same transit in every epoch. Panels (a)–(c): the data folded at the fitted ephemeris, one panel per epoch, with 15-minute bins (blue) and the maximum-posterior model from the fit to the 2-minute data (orange), the same in every panel. Panel (d): the 13 individual 2-minute transits in 30-minute bins, each with the same model.
   
Host star G 249-11: an M4.5 dwarf, 29.1 pc away, TESS magnitude 12.3, 0.27 R☉
Period 5.307419 ± 0.000010 d
Mid-transit time BJDTDB 2459922.9291 ± 0.0012
Depth, duration about 3,000 ppm; 0.86 h
Size, if a planet 1.6 (+0.4/−0.15) R⊕
Orbit 0.037 AU; 4.8 times Earth’s insolation; equilibrium temperature about 410 K
Data SPOC 2-minute sectors 19, 59 and 60; QLP full-frame sectors 73 and 86; 22 transits

The evidence:

Two BLS periodograms of the 2-minute data: before masking, a peak at 5.3074 days with SDE 15.9 and its aliases; after masking, nothing passes the detection thresholds
One signal, and nothing else. Signal detection efficiency against trial period for sectors 19, 59 and 60. (a) The first search: the highest peak is at 5.3074 d; the other peaks above the threshold are its aliases, apart from one at 18.98 d that disappears once its transits are masked. (b) After masking the transits and detrending again: the highest peak (0.884 d) has S/N 6.2, below the threshold of 7.

Not yet a planet G 249-11’s signal is a candidate, not a confirmed planet, and it is not yet a TOI or a Community TOI. TESS photometry cannot rule out an eclipsing binary bound to the star or hidden within about 14″ of it. Settling it needs ground-based photometry of a transit, high-resolution imaging and radial velocities (a semi-amplitude of 2.4–5.7 m/s for 2.5–6 Earth masses). The next predicted transit times are in derived_values.txt.

Wolf 1530 (TIC 88756273): a weak lead

A 3.694-day signal at S/N 9.3 over three sectors, which would be about 1.1 Earth radii. Its transits are short and near-grazing (0.44 h), and the one later sector agrees only at a level that noise reaches about 3 % of the time. It is worth checking again when TESS next observes the star.

Every other signal

outcome sectors 1–26 sectors 27–83
strong candidate – 1
weak lead – 1
known eclipsing binary 4 2
light from a neighboring star 2 –
starspots, or a short-period variation 4 3
instrumental 4 5
transit far too long for the star – 2
not confirmed by the star’s other TESS years, so most likely noise 12 22
signals checked 26 36

Sectors 1–26 (TESS years 1 and 2).

Sectors 27–83 (TESS years 3 to 6).

Sectors 84–96 are being searched.

What the batches taught the pipeline